{"id":569,"date":"2022-10-28T18:40:04","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T21:40:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/?p=569"},"modified":"2023-02-21T23:33:15","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T02:33:15","slug":"goldman-sachs-ve-direcao-para-um-pouso-suave-para-o-sistema-financeiro-ficando-mais-claro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/goldman-sachs-ve-direcao-para-um-pouso-suave-para-o-sistema-financeiro-ficando-mais-claro\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs sees direction for soft landing for financial system becoming clearer"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span>There may be a path to a soft landing after all. At the very least, that&#039;s what economists at Goldman Sachs believe, which said the Federal Reserve still has a 65% chance of preserving the financial system from a recession while bringing inflation back to sustainable levels. In a pair of client notes filed on Sunday, the Wall Street firm based its case on two pillars \u2013 that the labor market is beginning to stabilize again between supply and demand, and that the wage boom is cooling enough in two key sectors to imply that a spiral of wage spending could also be thwarted. \u201cThe chances of a recession proving necessary have fallen somewhat since the first two stages of the necessary adjustment \u2013 slowing GDP growth to a below-advantage pace and rebalancing supply and demand in the labor market \u2013 have been remarkably good to date, more positive than most. Goldman assigns a 35% probability that the economy will enter a recession next year. The firm expects GDP growth of just 0.3% in these 12 months and 1.1% in 2023. Considering that this is well above what might be expected in ordinary cases, or not, it is basically more positive than some forecasts. The CNBC All-America poll for the third quarter, released last week, showed that 68% of respondents expect the U.S. to enter a recession quickly, while 9% believe the country is already there. (The poll surveyed 800 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.)\u201c Briggs discussed how inflation-adjusted spending in the alternative retail and accommodation and food service sectors indicates that customers are pulling back. At the same time, the available labor gap is narrowing, and wage growth and price inflation are cooling equally, although they are still operating at prolonged levels. \u201dCase histories on the retail and accommodation and food service industries strongly suggest that the path to a delicate touchdown assumed in our basic financial forecast is viable,\u201c Briggs wrote. Facts from different industries, however, are never so encouraging. Labor market circumstances are \u201dextraordinarily unbalanced\u201c in the industries corresponding to wholesale trade, specialized and business resources, as well as healthcare and social information, Briggs stated. Even with these imbalances, however, he said that the average development \u201doften helps the prospects for a soft landing.\u201c Similarly, Mericle noted that the chances of a Fed-induced recession through extreme interest rate hikes \u201dhave likely increased somewhat.\u201c He also said that the chances of a Recession \u201dsome unforeseen ingredient\u201c is also \u201dslightly higher than average,\u201c while geopolitical risks \u201dare also better than usual.\u201d Markets will learn more about inflation and the state of the broader economic system later this week. Third-quarter GDP figures may come out on Thursday, with the Dow Jones consensus looking for a 2.4% increase after two consecutive negative readings in the first half of the year. Self-consumption charges inflation, the Fed\u2019s preferred metric, hits on Friday, with expectations of a 5.2% rise in core 12-month inflation in September, compared to 4.9% in the previous month.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pode haver um caminho para uma aterrissagem suave, afinal.\u00a0No m\u00ednimo, \u00e9 o que os economistas consideram no Goldman Sachs, que disse que o Federal Reserve ainda tem 65% de chance de preservar o sistema financeiro de uma recess\u00e3o enquanto traz a infla\u00e7\u00e3o de volta a n\u00edveis sustent\u00e1veis.\u00a0Em um par de notas de clientes arquivadas no [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}