{"id":770,"date":"2022-12-05T19:58:59","date_gmt":"2022-12-05T22:58:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/?p=770"},"modified":"2023-02-21T23:33:15","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T02:33:15","slug":"por-que-a-economia-esta-comecando-a-acreditar-no-bem-impulsivamente","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/por-que-a-economia-esta-comecando-a-acreditar-no-bem-impulsivamente\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the economy is impulsively starting to believe in good"},"content":{"rendered":"

This year feels long, with everyone nervously waiting for problems to worsen. I'm mainly talking about the economic system. The rise in inflation has become so sharp \u2013 reaching 9 pC in June \u2013 that it has overshadowed all the positives and cast a shadow of despair over this chaotic and ordinary year. Why not? Although unemployment has remained low, the strong wage benefits that workers have received haven't been enough to overcome the high cost of living. Furthermore, with the conflict in Ukraine and OPEC+ raising oil prices, and everyone anxious about the delayed results of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, it made more sense to prepare for a much worse 2023. Recession, stagflation, depression\u2026 and who knows what other terrible problems.<\/span><\/p>\n

In about two weeks, Federal Reserve governors will hold a meeting to set the economic climate for at least the beginning of the next 12 months. Measuring the next price hike is likely to be their message. On Wednesday, the chairman of the important bank, Jerome Powell, gave a speech that hinted he had managed to begin easing the price increases that are killing the economic climate (but also killing inflation) after nearly a year of the Fed's most aggressive campaign in a long time. "The time to moderate the pace of interest rate hikes may also come as early as the December meeting," he said, in his usual understated style. In many ways, it became a repetition of speeches he's given before \u2013 those that noted Wall Street's dramatic trend unloading when it seemed it still couldn't stop slamming on the economic brakes. This time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average put on its birthday hat and hit the punch bowl early, climbing more than 700 points, its highest point since April.<\/span><\/p>\n

What has changed? The Fed has made it clear that these measures will not remain forever \u2013 some people openly worry about how overdoing it could destroy the economic climate \u2013 and is watching for signs of when to cool it down. Inflation has been fairly stable in recent months and should continue to fall. (November's record inflation is scheduled to be released a few days before the Fed meeting.) On Wednesday, the federal executive also released two other pieces of information that give the Fed cover to begin slowing its plans to escalate interest costs. The first is that the number of job losses fell by 353,000 in one month, even as people continue to leave their jobs. (The Fed is asking to curb hiring as a substitute for slowing the business boom, which it hopes will diminish to prevent costs from rising further. While the normal number of job openings is extremely high, they are moving in the direction Powell wants to go.) The other is that the economy grew 2.91TP3Q in the last quarter, making a recession less likely. The unemployment rate is still at 3.71TP3Q, which is near old lows, and the next record high on Friday is not expected to reveal much transformation.<\/span><\/p>\n

It's not as if the economic climate is booming now, but it's not bad either. Going forward, the Fed is expected to keep its activity forecasts high for a relatively long period of time, the consequences of which are unpredictable. House prices have already begun to contract to levels comparable to the 2008 housing crisis. If personal loan rates remain as high as in previous years, this could keep tens of millions in underwater housing, while initiating a cycle in which housing eventually becomes affordable for tens of millions of Americans, giving them the opportunity to build wealth through a market from which they were recently excluded.<\/span><\/p>\n

But for now, the shroud seems to have lifted. Globally, Europe appears to have enough gas to avoid freezing over the winter, and many of the thornier supply chain tangles that emerged during the war in Ukraine have been resolved. Gas is almost the same as it was a year ago, before everyone started complaining about it. Okay, things are bad if you work in cryptography or on Twitter, but if that's you, you're probably still doing enough (unless your identity is Sam Bankman-Fried). For everyone else, it seems Powell may be able to cool the economy without breaking it.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Este ano parece longo, todas as pessoas esperando nervosamente que os problemas piorem ainda mais.\u00a0Falo aqui principalmente do sistema econ\u00f4mico.\u00a0O aumento da infla\u00e7\u00e3o tornou-se t\u00e3o acentuado – chegando a 9 pC em junho – que abafou todos os aspectos positivos e deu um tom de desespero durante este ano ca\u00f3tico e comum.\u00a0Por que n\u00e3o?\u00a0Embora o […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}