Vzh\u013eadom na nepokoje na trhu, nadmern\u00fa infl\u00e1ciu a hroziace zvy\u0161ovanie \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb, ktor\u00e9 zdra\u017e\u00ed p\u00f4\u017ei\u010dky, si mnoh\u00ed Ameri\u010dania klad\u00fa ot\u00e1zku, \u010di ekonomick\u00e1 kl\u00edma smeruje k recesii.<\/p>\n
Predseda predstavenstva Goldman Sachs Lloyd Blankfein poznamenal, \u017ee v\u00edkend \u201cv skuto\u010dnosti nie je extr\u00e9mne, ve\u013emi nadmern\u00fdm rizikov\u00fdm faktorom\u201d a klienti by mali by\u0165 \u201cna to pripraven\u00ed\u201d. Napriek tomu svoju sp\u00e4tn\u00fa v\u00e4zbu zmiernil vyhl\u00e1sen\u00edm, \u017ee Feder\u00e1lny rezervn\u00fd syst\u00e9m \u201cm\u00e1 ve\u013emi \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 vybavenie\u201d a recesia \u201cu\u017e nie je v pl\u00e1ne\u201d.<\/p>\n
Aj ke\u010f je to nedosiahnute\u013en\u00e9, \u0161ance na recesiu v USA v bud\u00facom roku neust\u00e1le rast\u00fa, na z\u00e1klade s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho prieskumu agent\u00fary Bloomberg medzi 37 ekon\u00f3mami. Kurz sa odhaduje na 30%, \u010do je dvojn\u00e1sobok oproti trom mesiacom.<\/p>\n
Pre uvedenie tohto \u010d\u00edsla do kontextu, pravdepodobnos\u0165 recesie je v danom roku zvy\u010dajne okolo 151 TP3T v d\u00f4sledku neo\u010dak\u00e1van\u00fdch udalost\u00ed a mnoh\u00fdch premenn\u00fdch.<\/p>\n
Z\u00e1vere\u010dn\u00e1 anal\u00fdza: \u201cPravdepodobnos\u0165 recesie v tomto roku je pomerne n\u00edzka,\u201d hovor\u00ed Gus Faucher, hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m skupiny finan\u010dn\u00fdch funkci\u00ed v spolo\u010dnosti PNC zaoberaj\u00facej sa ekonomick\u00fdmi zdrojmi. Hoci \u201cv rokoch 2023 a 2024 sa to stane rizikovej\u0161\u00edm.\u201d.<\/p>\n
D\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u010di ekonomick\u00e1 kl\u00edma vst\u00fapi do recesie.
\nRecesia je pod\u013ea N\u00e1rodn\u00e9ho \u00faradu pre ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdskum, ktor\u00fd form\u00e1lne vyhlasuje recesiu, v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles finan\u010dnej rekre\u00e1cie, ktor\u00fd sa prejavuje v celej ekonomike a trv\u00e1 viac ako dva mesiace.<\/p>\n
K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdm ukazovate\u013eom pravdepodobnej recesie je skuto\u010dn\u00fd hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1ci produkt (HDP), \u010do je hodnota tovarov a slu\u017eieb vyroben\u00fdch v Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch upraven\u00e1 o infl\u00e1ciu. Prv\u00fdkr\u00e1t od za\u010diatku pand\u00e9mie sa v prvom \u0161tvr\u0165roku 2022 zn\u00ed\u017eil na ro\u010dn\u00fa mieru 1,41 TP3T. Ke\u010f\u017ee mnoh\u00ed ekon\u00f3movia sa zhoduj\u00fa v tom, \u017ee 21 TP3T predstavuje primeran\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na rast HDP, slab\u00fd \u0161tvr\u0165rok z h\u013eadiska 12-mesa\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja nazna\u010duje, \u017ee ekonomick\u00fd syst\u00e9m sa m\u00f4\u017ee zmen\u0161ova\u0165.<\/p>\n
\u010eal\u0161\u00edm faktorom je rast\u00faca infl\u00e1cia, ktor\u00e1 v poslednom \u010dase vykazuje zn\u00e1mky spomalenia. St\u00e1le je v\u0161ak v\u00fdrazne nad referen\u010dn\u00fdm cie\u013eom Fedu na \u00farovni 2%, pri\u010dom ro\u010dn\u00e1 miera v apr\u00edli dosiahla 8,3%, \u010do je v podstate zalo\u017een\u00e9 na najnov\u0161\u00edch \u00fadajoch o indexe \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb spotrebite\u013eov.<\/p>\n
Pri vysokej miere infl\u00e1cie vy\u0161\u0161ie n\u00e1klady preva\u017euj\u00fa nad n\u00e1rastom miezd, \u010do sp\u00f4sobuje, \u017ee probl\u00e9my ako palivo a zamestnanos\u0165 maj\u00fa pre spotrebite\u013eov mimoriadne vysok\u00e9 ceny. Z tohto d\u00f4vodu Fed zav\u00e1dza zv\u00fd\u0161enie sadzieb pre hobby, ako to urobil v marci a m\u00f4\u017ee urobi\u0165, pri\u010dom v marci tohto roka ich bude \u010fal\u0161\u00edch p\u00e4\u0165. Tieto zv\u00fd\u0161enia odr\u00e1dzaj\u00fa od m\u00ed\u0148ania, \u010d\u00edm sa n\u00e1klady na po\u017ei\u010diavanie pe\u0148az\u00ed predra\u017euj\u00fa pre agent\u00fary a z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov.<\/p>\n
Mnoh\u00ed ekon\u00f3movia st\u00e1le o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa rast HDP v roku 2022, zatia\u013e \u010do tempo, ak\u00fdm sa zni\u017euje infl\u00e1cia, je ove\u013ea menej jasn\u00e9.<\/p>\n
zn\u00e1mky finan\u010dnej stability
\nExistuj\u00fa v\u0161ak dobr\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00e9 ukazovatele, na ktor\u00e9 sa mo\u017eno inteligentne spo\u013eahn\u00fa\u0165. Po\u010det pracovn\u00fdch miest na\u010falej vyzer\u00e1 slu\u0161ne, preto\u017ee americk\u00e1 ekonomika v apr\u00edli zaznamenala 12. mesiac po sebe id\u00faci n\u00e1rast o 400 000 alebo viac pracovn\u00fdch miest. A \u00farove\u0148 zamestnanosti a spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa zatia\u013e siln\u00e9, a to aj napriek zvy\u0161ovaniu \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb a infl\u00e1cii.<\/p>\n
\u201cN\u00e1sledne sa mus\u00ed infl\u00e1cia z h\u013eadiska rastu cien sta\u0165 s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch zvykov,\u201d hovor\u00ed Victor Calanog, ved\u00faci oddelenia ekonomiky komer\u010dn\u00fdch nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v agent\u00fare Moody's.<\/p>\n
Poukazuje na to, \u017ee spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky v USA sa v zost\u00e1vaj\u00facom \u0161tvr\u0165roku zv\u00fd\u0161ili o 2,71 %: \u201c\u013dudia st\u00e1le m\u00ed\u0148aj\u00fa viac, ale kedy sa narodia s men\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fddavkami?\u201d<\/p>\n
Napriek t\u00fdmto pozit\u00edvnym aspektom pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00fa nebezpe\u010denstv\u00e1. Feder\u00e1lny rezervn\u00fd syst\u00e9m si so svojou hospod\u00e1rskou politikou d\u00e1va pozor, preto\u017ee pr\u00edli\u0161 ve\u013ea alebo pr\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo opatren\u00ed na rie\u0161enie infl\u00e1cie by mohlo ekonomiku e\u0161te viac po\u0161kodi\u0165.<\/p>\n
\u201cRast\u00face ceny kon\u00ed\u010dkov by mali s istotou zmierni\u0165 n\u00e1rast bez toho, aby ekonomick\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu tla\u010dili do recesie,\u201d hovor\u00ed Faucher. Tvrd\u00ed v\u0161ak, \u017ee ak t\u00e1to cenn\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00e1 in\u0161tit\u00facia \u201cpr\u00edli\u0161 zv\u00fd\u0161i svoje sadzby, mohlo by to ekonomick\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu tla\u010di\u0165 do recesie.\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cPreto sa viac anga\u017eujem v roku 2023 alebo 2024, preto\u017ee poc\u00edtime kumulat\u00edvny efekt v\u0161etk\u00fdch t\u00fdchto n\u00e1rastov \u00farokov\u00fdch n\u00e1kladov, ktor\u00e9 uvid\u00edme v priebehu nasleduj\u00faceho roka a pol.\u201d.<\/p>\n
Oprava: Victor Calanog je ved\u00facim oddelenia ekonomiky komer\u010dn\u00fdch nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v agent\u00fare Moody's. V predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facom vydan\u00ed bolo jeho meno nap\u00edsan\u00e9 s chybou.<\/p>\n
Zaregistrujte sa teraz: Z\u00edskajte m\u00fadrej\u0161\u00ed pr\u00edstup k svojim peniazom a kari\u00e9re s na\u0161\u00edm t\u00fd\u017edenn\u00fdm newsletterom.<\/p>\n
Nenechajte si ujs\u0165: hypot\u00e9ky s v\u00fdhodnej\u0161\u00edmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sadzbami m\u00f4\u017eu tie\u017e pon\u00faka\u0165 lacnej\u0161ie mesa\u010dn\u00e9 spl\u00e1tky na za\u010diatku, ale maj\u00fa aj ve\u013ek\u00e9 nev\u00fdhody.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Com a turbul\u00eancia nos mercados, infla\u00e7\u00e3o excessiva e aumentos iminentes das taxas de passatempo para que se possa fazer empr\u00e9stimos de dinheiro mais caros, muitos americanos est\u00e3o se perguntando se o clima econ\u00f4mico est\u00e1 caminhando para uma recess\u00e3o. O presidente do Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, observou que o final de semana “ou n\u00e3o \u00e9 realmente […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-mundo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=205"}],"curies":[{"name":"pracovn\u00fd list","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}