{"id":210,"date":"2022-05-20T18:05:10","date_gmt":"2022-05-20T21:05:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/?p=210"},"modified":"2023-02-21T23:33:12","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T02:33:12","slug":"a-recessao-subsequente-raramente-esta-aqui-ainda-aqui-e-quando-voce-deve-de-fato-comecar-a-se-preocupar-com-o-clima-economico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/a-recessao-subsequente-raramente-esta-aqui-ainda-aqui-e-quando-voce-deve-de-fato-comecar-a-se-preocupar-com-o-clima-economico\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e1sledn\u00e1 recesia tu e\u0161te len zriedka je. Vtedy by ste sa mali za\u010da\u0165 ob\u00e1va\u0165 ekonomickej kl\u00edmy."},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><span>Obavy z recesie v priebehu roka 2022 r\u00e1stli; existuj\u00fa v\u0161ak n\u00e1znaky, \u017ee k spomaleniu doch\u00e1dza len zriedka r\u00fdchlo.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165anie sa vr\u00e1tilo na \u00farove\u0148 spred katastrofy a americk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky rast\u00fa napriek vysokej infl\u00e1cii.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty s\u00edce m\u00f4\u017eu smerova\u0165 k recesii, ale nepochybne je t\u00e1 vzdialen\u00e1 minim\u00e1lne p\u00e1r mesiacov.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Varovania pred recesiou s\u00fa najvy\u0161\u0161ie, ak\u00e9 zaznamenali na za\u010diatku roka 2020. Najnov\u0161ie inform\u00e1cie, mlad\u00ed \u013eudia, nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee je pr\u00edli\u0161 skoro na ve\u013ek\u00e9 obavy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V\u00fdh\u013ead na finan\u010dn\u00e9 o\u017eivenie sa rozdelil na dva t\u00e1bory. V jednom k\u00fate sa jastrabi ekon\u00f3movia ob\u00e1vaj\u00fa, \u017ee boj Feder\u00e1lneho rezervn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu s infl\u00e1ciou spomal\u00ed o\u017eivenie. Rast\u00face n\u00e1klady na kon\u00ed\u010dky, v s\u00falade s komunitou, zni\u010dia v\u00fddavky a zaved\u00fa krajinu do novej, aj ke\u010f miernej, recesie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Na druhej strane, t\u00ed najoptimistickej\u0161\u00ed experti nevidia pre tak\u00fdto probl\u00e9m ve\u013ea d\u00f4vodov. Prip\u00fa\u0161\u0165aj\u00fa, \u017ee infl\u00e1cia je probl\u00e9m a \u017ee rast sa spoma\u013euje. M\u00f4\u017eu sa v\u0161ak rovnako s\u00fastredi\u0165 na vo\u013en\u00fd \u010das finan\u010dn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu a nech s\u00fa fakty o infl\u00e1cii akoko\u013evek alarmuj\u00face, r\u00f4zne sign\u00e1ly nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee USA sa na krajinu, ktor\u00e1 sa pr\u00e1ve vynorila z predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facej recesie, dar\u00ed mimoriadne dobre.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 varovn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly pon\u00fakaj\u00fa ekon\u00f3mom najbli\u017e\u0161ie k predpovedi finan\u010dn\u00e9ho boomu, preto\u017ee maj\u00fa tendenciu odha\u013eova\u0165 v\u00fdvoj sk\u00f4r. Ukazovatele vr\u00e1tane t\u00fd\u017edenn\u00fdch \u017eiadost\u00ed o podporu v nezamestnanosti a objedn\u00e1vok v tov\u00e1r\u0148ach m\u00f4\u017eu poskytn\u00fa\u0165 k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly hroziaceho spomalenia, ale zatia\u013e m\u00f4\u017eu pon\u00faka\u0165 len m\u00e1lo d\u00f4vodov na obavy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cMysl\u00edm si, \u017ee ekonomika je dobr\u00e1,\u201d povedal Neil Dutta, ved\u00faci oddelenia ekonomiky v spolo\u010dnosti Renaissance Macro Research, v podcaste agent\u00fary Bloomberg s n\u00e1zvom \u201cnezvy\u010dajn\u00e1 hojnos\u0165\u201d. Povedal, \u017ee ak by mal odpoveda\u0165, \u201cmysl\u00edte si, \u017ee n\u00e1rast bude vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ako predpoved\u00e1 konsenzus pre \u0161tvrt\u00fd \u0161tvr\u0165rok 2022?\u2018, m\u00f4j odhad by mohol by\u0165 'pravdepodobne spr\u00e1vny\u2018.'<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>O\u010dak\u00e1va sa, \u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161enie \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb Fedom spomal\u00ed boom, ale jeho \u00fa\u010dinky sa nemusia \u00faplne prejavi\u0165 minim\u00e1lne nieko\u013eko mesiacov. Dovtedy s\u00fa najpozorovanej\u0161ie varovania pred recesiou pravdepodobne povzbudiv\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>K hromadn\u00e9mu prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165aniu zatia\u013e nedoch\u00e1dza.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Strata pracovn\u00fdch miest je charakteristick\u00fdm znakom hospod\u00e1rskych kr\u00edz. \u00davahy o rast\u00facej nezamestnanosti sa v roku 2022 preh\u013abili, ke\u010f\u017ee ekon\u00f3movia predpokladaj\u00fa, \u017ee zlep\u0161en\u00e9 miery nezamestnanosti spoma\u013euj\u00fa \u00fasilie o n\u00e1bor zamestnancov.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zatia\u013e neexistuj\u00fa \u017eiadne n\u00e1znaky spomalenia o\u017eivenia pracovn\u00fdch miest. V apr\u00edli USA pridali 428 000 pracovn\u00fdch miest mimo po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstva, \u010d\u00edm prekonali progn\u00f3zy ekon\u00f3mov a zopakovali rovnak\u00fd n\u00e1rast z predch\u00e1dzaj\u00faceho mesiaca. Napriek tomu, \u017ee sa im podarilo obnovi\u0165 pribli\u017ene 95 percent pracovn\u00fdch miest, ktor\u00e9 boli predt\u00fdm straten\u00e9 po\u010das pand\u00e9mie, pozit\u00edvne medzimesa\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edsla o mzd\u00e1ch s\u00fa st\u00e1le dvojn\u00e1sobn\u00e9 oproti \u00farovni spred kr\u00edzy. Ak sa toto tempo udr\u017e\u00ed, krajina pred\u013a\u017ei o\u017eivenie trhu pr\u00e1ce do konca j\u00fala.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Dopyt po zamestnancoch preto zost\u00e1va siln\u00fd a spolo\u010dnosti si udr\u017eiavaj\u00fa slu\u0161n\u00fd po\u010det zamestnancov, ktor\u00fdch u\u017e maj\u00fa. T\u00fd\u017edenn\u00e9 \u017eiadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti sa bl\u00ed\u017eia k \u00farovniam spred kr\u00edzy sp\u00f4sobenej koronav\u00edrusom. Po\u010det pokra\u010duj\u00facich \u017eiadost\u00ed o podporu v nezamestnanosti, ktor\u00e9 meraj\u00fa po\u010det Ameri\u010danov akt\u00edvne poberaj\u00facich d\u00e1vky v nezamestnanosti, dosiahol v t\u00fd\u017edni kon\u010diacom 7. m\u00e1jom celkovo 1,32 mili\u00f3na, \u010do predstavuje najni\u017e\u0161iu \u00farove\u0148 od decembra 1969. Ak sa agent\u00fary pripravuj\u00fa na spomalenie, u\u017e sa to neprejavuje v ich v\u00fdplatn\u00fdch p\u00e1smach.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ak u\u017e nie\u010do, s\u00fa to \u013eudia, ktor\u00ed op\u00fa\u0161\u0165aj\u00fa svojich zamestn\u00e1vate\u013eov, nikdy nie naopak. Mesa\u010dn\u00e9 prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165anie dosiahlo v marci rekordn\u00fdch 4,5 mili\u00f3na, \u010do je desiaty mesiac po sebe, v ktorom viac ako \u0161tyri mili\u00f3ny Ameri\u010danov opustilo pr\u00e1cu. Prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165anie m\u00e1 tendenciu narasta\u0165, ke\u010f s\u00fa zamestnanci presved\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee inde n\u00e1jdu vy\u0161\u0161iu mzdu alebo lep\u0161ie pracovn\u00e9 podmienky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ke\u010f\u017ee v marci sa zoznam vo\u013en\u00fdch pracovn\u00fdch miest objavuje na honosn\u00fdch zoznamoch a spl\u00e1caj\u00fa sa starom\u00f3dnym tempom, je zrejm\u00e9, \u017ee spolo\u010dnosti sa st\u00e1le z\u00fafalo sna\u017eia n\u00e1js\u0165 a udr\u017ea\u0165 si zamestnancov, nie prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165a\u0165. K\u00fdm sa \u017eiadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti nezv\u00fd\u0161ia alebo k\u00fdm sa zv\u00fd\u0161enie miezd nezhor\u0161\u00ed, recesia je pravdepodobne vzdialen\u00e1 len nieko\u013eko mesiacov.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ameri\u010dania nakupuj\u00fa v\u010faka infl\u00e1cii.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Z\u00e1kazn\u00edci tie\u017e pracuj\u00fa, akoby recesia bola len pred\u013a\u017een\u00fdm odchodom. Napriek tomu, \u017ee n\u00e1lada kupuj\u00facich je na najpesimistickej\u0161ej \u00farovni za posledn\u00e9 desa\u0165ro\u010die, v\u00fddavky st\u00e1le rast\u00fa. Maloobchodn\u00e9 tr\u017eby v apr\u00edli vzr\u00e1stli o 0,91 TP3T a dosiahli rekordn\u00fdch 677,7 miliardy USD, uv\u00e1dzaj\u00fa vl\u00e1dne \u00fadaje zverejnen\u00e9 v utorok. Infl\u00e1cia s\u00edce tlm\u00ed n\u00e1ladu Ameri\u010danov, ale st\u00e1le m\u00ed\u0148aj\u00fa rozumne nad \u00farove\u0148 spred pand\u00e9mie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u0160tatistiky z\u00e1robkov patria medzi najpresnej\u0161ie ukazovatele na pos\u00fadenie primeranosti ekonomick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. Spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky tvoria pribli\u017ene 70% ekonomickej rekre\u00e1cie, \u010do znamen\u00e1, \u017ee prekvapiv\u00e9 spomalenie by malo v\u00fdrazn\u00fd negat\u00edvny vplyv na n\u00e1rod. Tr\u017eby firiem by prudko klesli a zamestn\u00e1vatelia by prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165ali pracovn\u00edkov, aby si ochr\u00e1nili svoje z\u00e1zemie. Hoci rast ziskov sa v roku 2022 \u010dasto spoma\u013eoval, ani z\u010faleka nem\u00e1 priamy vplyv na pokles.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cV americkom finan\u010dnom syst\u00e9me moment\u00e1lne vid\u00edme pomerne siln\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 prostredie. St\u00e1le m\u00e1me kupuj\u00facich, ktor\u00ed m\u00ed\u0148aj\u00fa slu\u0161n\u00fdm tempom,\u201d povedal pre Insider Greg Daco, hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m spolo\u010dnosti EY-Parthenon.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Medzit\u00fdm skupiny veria, \u017ee n\u00e1rast prepravy bude pokra\u010dova\u0165. Nov\u00e9 objedn\u00e1vky na priemyseln\u00fd tovar vzr\u00e1stli v marci o 2,21 TP3T, \u010do zdvojn\u00e1sobuje be\u017en\u00fa progn\u00f3zu a prudko zr\u00fdchli oproti febru\u00e1rov\u00e9mu n\u00e1rastu o 0,11 TP3T. Toto ukazovanie je pozorne sledovan\u00fdm indik\u00e1torom bud\u00faceho hospod\u00e1rskeho v\u00fdvoja, ke\u010f\u017ee n\u00e1rast objedn\u00e1vok nazna\u010duje o\u010dak\u00e1vania siln\u00e9ho dopytu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Dopytov\u00e1 strana ekonomick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu vyzer\u00e1 ve\u013emi silne. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 v\u00fddavky by mali by\u0165 k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdmi sign\u00e1lmi, \u017ee o\u017eivenie smeruje k recesii, \u010do nazna\u010duje slab\u00e9 alebo zn\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 objedn\u00e1vky v\u00fdrobn\u00fdch jednotiek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>R\u00f4zne ukazovatele roz\u0161\u00edren\u00e9ho vyh\u013ead\u00e1vania sa nach\u00e1dzaj\u00fa v zelenej oblasti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ani menej be\u017en\u00e9 ukazovatele pravdepodobnosti bud\u00facej recesie sa zatia\u013e nezd\u00e1 by\u0165 varovn\u00fdmi sign\u00e1lmi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V\u00fdnosov\u00e1 krivka je kupuj\u00facimi pova\u017eovan\u00e1 za spo\u013eahliv\u00fd ukazovate\u013e hospod\u00e1rskeho poklesu. N\u00e1stroj sleduje v\u00fdnosy v r\u00e1mci r\u00f4znych splatnost\u00ed \u0161t\u00e1tnych dlhopisov a efekt\u00edvne ukazuje, ako investori o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa, \u017ee ekonomick\u00e9 podmienky bud\u00fa vyzera\u0165 sk\u00f4r \u010di nesk\u00f4r. Invertovan\u00e1 v\u00fdnosov\u00e1 krivka \u2013 kde kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 sadzby prevy\u0161uj\u00fa dlhodob\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy \u2013 predch\u00e1dzala ve\u013ek\u00fdm recesi\u00e1m, preto\u017ee odr\u00e1\u017ea prechod investorov do bezpe\u010dnej\u0161\u00edch akt\u00edv uprostred ob\u00e1v zo spomalenia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Invertovan\u00e1 kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 v\u00fdnosov\u00e1 krivka v marci sa v\u0161ak odvtedy vr\u00e1tila sp\u00e4\u0165 do typickej\u0161ieho stavu. Tento naj\u00fa\u010dinnej\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1stroj sleduje o\u010dak\u00e1vania trhu a priamo nes\u00favis\u00ed s v\u00fdvojom ekonomickej kl\u00edmy. Zvrat sp\u00e4\u0165 k \u0161tandardnej krivke, ur\u010dite tak r\u00fdchlo po inverzii, nazna\u010duje, \u017ee investori si nie s\u00fa ist\u00ed, \u010di sa bl\u00ed\u017ei recesia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Aj s\u00fabor k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch ukazovate\u013eov konferen\u010dnej rady je v dobrom stave. Hlavn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd index organiz\u00e1cie klesol v apr\u00edli len o 0,31 TP3T na 119,2, ale st\u00e1le je o 0,91 TP3T vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ako pred \u0161iestimi mesiacmi. Ataman Ozyildirim, ved\u00faci riadite\u013e finan\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdskumu konferen\u010dnej rady, poznamenal, \u017ee ataman \u00d6zyildirim, ved\u00faci riadite\u013e finan\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdskumu v konferen\u010dnej rade, bude do roku 2022 p\u00f4sobi\u0165 naplno a ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdkon sa pravdepodobne v druhom \u0161tvr\u0165roku zotav\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V\u00fdznamn\u00e9 neistoty pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00fa, najm\u00e4 pokia\u013e Rusko pokra\u010duje vo vojne na Ukrajine, pretrv\u00e1va nedostatok pracovn\u00fdch s\u00edl a lockdowny v \u010c\u00edne hrozia naru\u0161en\u00edm dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00fdch re\u0165azcov. V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina ukazovate\u013eov v\u0161ak nazna\u010duje, \u017ee o\u017eivenie zost\u00e1va nedotknut\u00e9. Recesia m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 na obzore, ale je nepravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by v bl\u00edzkej bud\u00facnosti nastala.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Os temores de recess\u00e3o cresceram ao longo de 2022, no entanto, registra indicadores de que uma desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o raramente ocorre rapidamente. As demiss\u00f5es est\u00e3o de volta aos n\u00edveis anteriores ao desastre, e os gastos dos americanos est\u00e3o em alta, apesar da alta infla\u00e7\u00e3o. os Estados Unidos podem muito bem estar caminhando para uma recess\u00e3o, mas \u00e9, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economia","category-mundo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=210"}],"curies":[{"name":"pracovn\u00fd list","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}