{"id":340,"date":"2022-09-08T14:21:09","date_gmt":"2022-09-08T17:21:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/?p=340"},"modified":"2023-02-21T23:33:12","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T02:33:12","slug":"e-hora-de-reduzir-os-bancos-australianos-one-wall-st-guru-diz-que-sim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/e-hora-de-reduzir-os-bancos-australianos-one-wall-st-guru-diz-que-sim\/","title":{"rendered":"Je \u010das zmen\u0161i\u0165 austr\u00e1lske banky? Jeden guru z Wall St hovor\u00ed \u00e1no."},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cNajvy\u0161\u0161ie tr\u017eby oproti, povedzme, Braz\u00edlii.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1\u0161 koment\u00e1tor nevenoval ve\u013ek\u00fa pozornos\u0165 braz\u00edlskemu finan\u010dn\u00e9mu syst\u00e9mu; zvl\u00e1\u0161tne je, \u017ee sa ned\u00e1vno objavili n\u00e1znaky, \u017ee infl\u00e1cia dosiahla vrchol.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale predaj akci\u00ed austr\u00e1lskych b\u00e1nk nakr\u00e1tko? Ste si ist\u00fd, p\u00e1n Hartnett?<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010citatelia vo v\u0161eobecnosti pochopia, \u017ee tento st\u013ap\u010dek si Hartnettov\u00fa pr\u00e1cu ve\u013emi v\u00e1\u017ei; mo\u017eno je to medve\u010f, ale d\u00f4kladne si pre\u0161tudoval toto prostredie a na\u010falej m\u00e1 ve\u013ek\u00e9 obavy z toho, \u010do pr\u00edde a \u010do tento t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 op\u00edsal ako \u201cr\u00fdchly infla\u010dn\u00fd \u0161ok, pomal\u00fd recesn\u00fd \u0161ok\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u201cnomin\u00e1lny boom je st\u00e1le poh\u00e1\u0148an\u00fd infl\u00e1ciou, fi\u0161k\u00e1lnymi stimulmi a predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facim obdob\u00edm akumul\u00e1cie bohatstva\u201d, ale prich\u00e1dza recesia, ktor\u00e1 za\u010dne v Eur\u00f3pe a roz\u0161\u00edri sa do USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hartnett zast\u00e1va n\u00e1zor, \u017ee pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00faca infl\u00e1cia povedie Feder\u00e1lny rezervn\u00fd syst\u00e9m k zv\u00fd\u0161eniu sadzieb na 4% a ich udr\u017eaniu na tejto \u00farovni mo\u017eno a\u017e do roku 2024, kedy sa infl\u00e1cia kone\u010dne vr\u00e1ti, na rozdiel od cie\u013ea Fedu na \u00farovni 2%.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1klady na b\u00fdvanie prudko rast\u00fa na celom svete a Hartnett m\u00e1 pravdu: pokles austr\u00e1lskych v\u00fddavkov je pochm\u00farny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fakty z minul\u00e9ho t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148a uk\u00e1zali, \u017ee ceny bytov v Austr\u00e1lii klesli v auguste najr\u00fdchlej\u0161\u00edm tempom za \u0161tyridsa\u0165 rokov (je to e\u0161te hor\u0161ie, ako si mysl\u00edte, p\u00e1n Hartnett!), pri\u010dom v \u00f4smich hlavn\u00fdch mest\u00e1ch klesli o 1,61 TP3T, \u010do je o 4,2 percenta menej ako v apr\u00edli.<\/span><\/p>\n

V te\u00f3rii, \u017ee kamko\u013evek id\u00fa v\u00fddavky na byty, austr\u00e1lske banky \u2013 aj tak nahromaden\u00e9 hypot\u00e9kami a\u017e po krk \u2013 ich bud\u00fa nasledova\u0165, ur\u010dite existuje presved\u010div\u00fd zdrav\u00fd rozum.<\/span><\/p>\n

Okrem toho mo\u017eno argumentova\u0165, \u017ee tento cyklus poplatkov za byty v kondom\u00edniu sa m\u00f4\u017ee l\u00ed\u0161i\u0165 od cyklu pozorovan\u00e9ho za posledn\u00fdch 25 rokov, kedy v podstate do\u0161lo k poklesu 10% zhora nadol, po ktorom nasledovalo kr\u00e1tke o\u017eivenie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzh\u013eadom na to, \u017ee \u00farove\u0148 zadl\u017eenosti dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed je vy\u0161\u0161ia ako kedyko\u013evek predt\u00fdm, m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 priestor na zotavenie v\u00fddavkov ove\u013ea men\u0161\u00ed ako v minulosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ak m\u00e1 Hartnett pravdu oh\u013eadom pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00facej infl\u00e1cie, pravdepodobne sa o\u010dak\u00e1va n\u00e1vrat k extr\u00e9mne n\u00edzkym n\u00e1kladom, ktor\u00e9 vyhnali z\u00e1vratn\u00e9 v\u00fddavky. Hlb\u0161\u00ed pokles n\u00e1kladov na b\u00fdvanie by mohol by\u0165 inteligentne sprev\u00e1dzan\u00fd pomal\u0161\u00edm o\u017eiven\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuj\u00fa v\u0161ak aj dobr\u00e9 d\u00f4vody na opatrnos\u0165 pri predaji nakr\u00e1tko zo strany austr\u00e1lskych b\u00e1nk.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prv\u00fdm je pr\u00edbeh: existuj\u00fa d\u00f4vody, pre\u010do sa to naz\u00fdva obchod s \u201cvdovcami\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Austr\u00e1lski kupuj\u00faci miluj\u00fa dividendy a miluj\u00fa svoje banky, ktor\u00e9 patria medzi na\u0161ich najst\u00e1lej\u0161\u00edch platcov dividend. Preto sa slab\u00e9 akcie finan\u010dn\u00fdch in\u0161tit\u00faci\u00ed \u010dasto vn\u00edmaj\u00fa ako n\u00e1kupn\u00e1 pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165, najm\u00e4 s pomocou drobn\u00fdch obchodn\u00edkov.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pod\u013ea webovej str\u00e1nky Shortman s\u00fa kr\u00e1tke poz\u00edcie v r\u00e1mci b\u00e1nk ve\u013emi mal\u00e9, v rozmedz\u00ed od 0,341 TP3T short (ANZ) do 1,171 TP3T (finan\u010dn\u00e9 in\u0161tit\u00facie Westpac a Commonwealth). Pre porovnanie, najpred\u00e1vanej\u0161ou akciou na ASX je Flight Center, kde je nakr\u00e1tko dr\u017ean\u00fdch 15,41 TP3T akci\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ak sa v t\u00fdchto \u010d\u00edslach odr\u00e1\u017ea jeden aspekt tohto kon\u00ed\u010dka, je to CBA (Consumer Binge Area), kde kr\u00e1tke obdobie kon\u00ed\u010dkov dosahuje vrchol troch a\u017e dvan\u00e1stich mesiacov, a to aj napriek jednozna\u010dne n\u00edzkemu z\u00e1kladu.<\/span><\/p>\n

A hoci ceny bytov klesli, akcie b\u00e1nk pr\u00e1ve neklesli. Akcie CBA a NAB vzr\u00e1stli o 2,6 percenta, respekt\u00edve 4,9 percenta, zatia\u013e \u010do akcie ANZ vzr\u00e1stli o 8,3 percenta a akcie Westpac klesli o 4,8 percenta.<\/span><\/p>\n

In\u00fdm protiargumentom k Hartnettovmu n\u00e1zoru je, \u017ee banky nepochybne vstupuj\u00fa do obdobia rastu mar\u017e\u00ed s rast\u00facou mierou aktivity.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytik banky Citi Brendan Sproules hovor\u00ed, \u017ee hoci sa prudk\u00fd rast bankov\u00fdch ziskov, ku ktor\u00e9mu do\u0161lo po\u010das augustovej hospod\u00e1rskej sez\u00f3ny, spomalil, \u010diasto\u010dne v\u010faka efekt\u00edvnej konkurencii v hypotek\u00e1rnom sektore, na ceste s\u00fa lep\u0161ie mzdy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cR\u00fdchla sadzba sa v j\u00fani, j\u00fali a auguste zvy\u0161uje s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi o\u010dak\u00e1vaniami t\u00fdkaj\u00facimi sa dodr\u017eiavania predpisov, pokia\u013e rok 2023 pravdepodobne neprinesie ve\u013emi odli\u0161n\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky na finan\u010dn\u00e9 in\u0161tit\u00facie vo fi\u0161k\u00e1lnom roku 2023 v porovnan\u00ed s fi\u0161k\u00e1lnym rokom 2022.\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPrv\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly z b\u00e1nk ANZ a Bendigo & Adelaide nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd efekt by mohol by\u0165 pomerne siln\u00fd, ke\u010f\u017ee ceny hypot\u00e9k a vkladov neboli po\u010das cel\u00e9ho obdobia stability konzistentn\u00e9. To postavilo vedenie banky do presnej poz\u00edcie, ako verejne hovori\u0165 o \u00farokovej p\u00e1ke.\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPreto sa kupuj\u00faci, vzh\u013eadom na m\u00e1lo predbe\u017en\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed o faktoroch v progn\u00f3zach, spoliehali na retrospekt\u00edvnu dynamiku cien hypot\u00e9k. Mysl\u00edme si, \u017ee to bude odch\u00fdlka, a preto si zachov\u00e1vame n\u00e1\u0161 skvel\u00fd v\u00fdh\u013ead na tento sektor.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fddavky dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed maj\u00fa ove\u013ea v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed priestor na pokles. Nie je v\u0161ak u\u017e tak\u00e9 jasn\u00e9, \u010di kroky banky prines\u00fa v\u00fdsledky.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cvenda de primeira linha versus, digamos, Brasil.\u201d Agora, seu colunista n\u00e3o tem prestado muita aten\u00e7\u00e3o ao sistema financeiro brasileiro, jovens curiosamente houve sinais recentes de que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o estava no pico. mas shorting bancos australianos?\u00a0Tem certeza, Sr. Hartnett? leitores em geral entender\u00e3o que esta coluna pensa muito bem no trabalho de Hartnett;\u00a0ele pode ser baixista, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=340"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=340"}],"curies":[{"name":"pracovn\u00fd list","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}