{"id":390,"date":"2022-09-17T23:16:30","date_gmt":"2022-09-18T02:16:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/?p=390"},"modified":"2023-02-21T23:33:13","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T02:33:13","slug":"o-sistema-financeiro-esta-esfriando-apenas-nao-mais-da-maneira-certa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/o-sistema-financeiro-esta-esfriando-apenas-nao-mais-da-maneira-certa\/","title":{"rendered":"Finan\u010dn\u00fd syst\u00e9m sa ochladzuje \u2013 len u\u017e nie spr\u00e1vnym sp\u00f4sobom."},"content":{"rendered":"

Predseda Feder\u00e1lneho rezervn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu Jerome Powell varoval, \u017ee pr\u00edsnej\u0161ia finan\u010dn\u00e1 politika tejto cennej finan\u010dnej in\u0161tit\u00facie by mohla by\u0165 bolestiv\u00e1. Ned\u00e1vne udalosti potvrdzuj\u00fa, \u017ee mal pravdu. Ting Shen\/Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n

meranie textov\u00e9ho obsahu<\/span><\/p>\n

Pre Feder\u00e1lny rezervn\u00fd syst\u00e9m Jeromea Powella sa z pohodlnej \u010dasti stala cesta agres\u00edvneho spr\u00eds\u0148ovania ekonomickej politiky s cie\u013eom obmedzi\u0165 roky nadmernej infl\u00e1cie, k\u00fdm sa finan\u010dn\u00fd syst\u00e9m stane efekt\u00edvnym. Teraz, ke\u010f ekonomika vykazuje prv\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky rozsiahleho zmiernenia, je v\u00fdh\u013eadov\u00fd \u0161t\u00fdl pripraven\u00fd sta\u0165 sa trvalej\u0161\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pozrite sa napr\u00edklad na spr\u00e1vu o hospod\u00e1rskych v\u00fdsledkoch spolo\u010dnosti FedEx, aby ste videli, kam sa veci bud\u00fa ubera\u0165. Spolo\u010dnos\u0165 (burzov\u00fd symbol: FDX) vo \u0161tvrtok zn\u00ed\u017eila svoju progn\u00f3zu zisku o pol miliardy dol\u00e1rov a varovala, \u017ee objemy klesaj\u00fa, ke\u010f\u017ee \u201cmakroekonomick\u00e9 charakteristiky sa v\u00fdrazne zhor\u0161ili\u201d. T\u00e1to inform\u00e1cia vyvolala obavy z glob\u00e1lnej recesie a sp\u00f4sobila pokles akci\u00ed spolo\u010dnosti o viac ako 20%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teraz verte z\u00e1plave faktov zverejnen\u00fdch tento t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148. \u010c\u00edsla o maloobchodn\u00fdch pr\u00edjmoch za august na prv\u00fd poh\u013ead potvrdili skvel\u00fd n\u00e1rast oproti predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facemu mesiacu, ke\u010f\u017ee pokles v\u00fddavkov na pohonn\u00e9 hmoty ponechal v rozpo\u010dtoch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed viac priestoru na diskr\u00e9tne n\u00e1kupy a stravovanie v re\u0161taur\u00e1ci\u00e1ch. J\u00falov\u00e9 \u010d\u00edsla v\u0161ak boli drasticky revidovan\u00e9 smerom nadol. Celkovo boli \u00fadaje za posledn\u00e9 dva mesiace dos\u0165 hrozn\u00e9, \u010do nazna\u010duje, \u017ee kombin\u00e1cia vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch v\u00fddavkov a pr\u00edsnej\u0161ieho krytia tlm\u00ed dopyt z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podobn\u00fd trend vykazuje aj v\u00fdrobn\u00fd sektor. Priemyseln\u00e1 produkcia v auguste klesla o 0,21 TP3T, \u010do je pod konsenzu\u00e1lnou \u00farov\u0148ou. Zatia\u013e \u010do produkcia vo v\u00fdrobe vzr\u00e1stla o 0,11 TP3T, v j\u00fali do\u0161lo k \u010fal\u0161ej rev\u00edzii smerom nadol, \u010d\u00edm sa viac ne\u017e len vymazali ak\u00e9ko\u013evek pozit\u00edvne body.<\/span><\/p>\n

Samostatn\u00e9 prieskumy Feder\u00e1lnych rezervn\u00fdch b\u00e1nk vo Philadelphii a New Yorku, zverejnen\u00e9 vo \u0161tvrtok, potvrdili hrozn\u00fd boom v priemysle s rovnakou presnos\u0165ou. Pre Philadelphiu znamenal august tret\u00ed pokles za 4 mesiace; New York zaznamenal druh\u00fd pokles po sebe a \u0161tvrt\u00fd za 5 mesiacov.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Medzit\u00fdm trh s b\u00fdvan\u00edm \u201cnarazil na tehlov\u00fa stenu\u201d, ako to tento t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 vyjadril hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m finan\u010dnej in\u0161tit\u00facie Comerica Adams. \u00darokov\u00e9 sadzby z \u00faverov dosiahli 6% prv\u00fdkr\u00e1t od roku 2008, uk\u00e1zali z\u00e1znamy spolo\u010dnosti Freddie Mac zverejnen\u00e9 vo \u0161tvrtok, zatia\u013e \u010do \u017eiadosti o \u00faver klesli na najni\u017e\u0161iu \u00farove\u0148 od roku 1999.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cZa\u010d\u00edname vidie\u0165, \u017ee toto odlo\u017eenie m\u00e1 vplyv na predch\u00e1dzaj\u00face zvy\u0161ovanie sadzieb s pomocou Fedu,\u201d hovor\u00ed Joe Brusuelas, hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m ekonomickej poradenskej firmy RSM.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto v\u0161etko mo\u017eno pova\u017eova\u0165 za dobr\u00fa spr\u00e1vu \u2013 alebo by to aspo\u0148 malo by\u0165 to, \u010do Fed o\u010dak\u00e1val. T\u00e1to nevyhnutn\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00e1 in\u0161tit\u00facia je k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 pre postupn\u00e9 zmier\u0148ovanie ekonomickej kl\u00edmy s cie\u013eom obmedzi\u0165 spotrebite\u013esk\u00fd dopyt a zastavi\u0165 infl\u00e1ciu a ekonomick\u00fd syst\u00e9m u\u017e teraz vykazuje tento vplyv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spomalenie v\u00fdroby a pokles pr\u00edjmov maloobchodu v\u0161ak prich\u00e1dzaj\u00fa, a to aj napriek pokra\u010duj\u00facej infl\u00e1cii a nap\u00e4tiu na trhu pr\u00e1ce ako kedyko\u013evek predt\u00fdm. Predbe\u017en\u00e9 \u017eiadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti vo \u0161tvrtok op\u00e4\u0165 klesli u\u017e piaty t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 po sebe a cena poistenia v nezamestnanosti klesla pod 1%.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00e1to schopnos\u0165, ktor\u00fa bude ma\u0165 k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00e1 in\u0161tit\u00facia, mus\u00ed zosta\u0165 agres\u00edvna dlh\u0161ie, ke\u010f\u017ee infl\u00e1cia sa st\u00e1va rigidnej\u0161ou alebo \u0165a\u017e\u0161ie zvl\u00e1dnute\u013enou. Je to efekt\u00edvnej\u0161ie, preto\u017ee to zhor\u0161uje probl\u00e9m pre Powella, predsedu Fedu, a otv\u00e1ra nov\u00fa f\u00e1zu v k\u013e\u00fa\u010dovej kampani banky v boji proti infl\u00e1cii \u2013 ktor\u00e1 prebieha v kontexte stagnuj\u00faceho finan\u010dn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cJe to faktor na zvy\u0161ovanie sadzieb v situ\u00e1cii, v ktorej sa v\u0161etci zhoduj\u00fa ako v prosperuj\u00facej ekonomike,\u201d hovor\u00ed Tim Quinlan, hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m spolo\u010dnosti Wells Fargo. \u201cPre t\u00fdch, ktor\u00ed dosiahli niektor\u00e9 z k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch inflexn\u00fdch bodov, je ove\u013ea \u0165a\u017e\u0161ie udr\u017ea\u0165 sadzby na vzostupe.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Napriek \u0161ir\u0161iemu spomaleniu boli \u0161tatistiky CPI za august zverejnen\u00e9 tento t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 tak\u00e9 optimistick\u00e9, \u017ee viedli ekon\u00f3mov v spolo\u010dnosti Jefferies a inde k zv\u00fd\u0161eniu o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00ed t\u00fdkaj\u00facich sa tzv. termin\u00e1lnej sadzby Fedu na minimum 4,5%, \u010do je n\u00e1rast oproti predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facim 4,%, v ktor\u00fdch boli zverejnen\u00e9 najnov\u0161ie mesa\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fadaje. Najnov\u0161ia \u0161t\u00fadia tie\u017e upokojila hovorenia, \u017ee by hlavn\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00e1 in\u0161tit\u00facia mohla dosiahnu\u0165 mierny touchdown, \u010d\u00edm rozpt\u00fdlila n\u00e1deje, ktor\u00e9 vzr\u00e1stli po tom, \u010do \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby v j\u00fali zostali nezmenen\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou teraz je, ak\u00e9 bolestiv\u00e9 bud\u00fa d\u00f4sledky v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho zv\u00fd\u0161enia v\u00fddavkov finan\u010dnej in\u0161tit\u00facie. Hoci sa zd\u00e1, \u017ee predstavitelia Fedu si dobre uvedomuj\u00fa, \u017ee \u201cminim\u00e1lne si musia by\u0165 vedom\u00ed hrozn\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch d\u00f4sledkov svojho spr\u00eds\u0148ovania,\u201d hovor\u00ed Quinlan, \u201cv ich kongresovom mand\u00e1te nie je ni\u010d, \u010do by nazna\u010dovalo, \u017ee by mali venova\u0165 pozornos\u0165 tomuto zhor\u0161ovaniu ekonomick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAk bud\u00fa pokra\u010dova\u0165 v tom, o \u010dom \u0161pekuluj\u00fa, \u017ee bud\u00fa pokra\u010dova\u0165,\u201d hovor\u00ed, \u201cpotom by ich nemalo odradi\u0165 zhor\u0161enie ekonomick\u00fdch fundamentov.\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Powell u\u017e t\u00fd\u017edne zd\u00f4raz\u0148uje, \u017ee t\u00e1to k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00e1 in\u0161tit\u00facia si je vedom\u00e1 toho, \u017ee jej kroky sp\u00f4sobia bolestiv\u00fd pokles, ale \u017ee sa nenech\u00e1 odradi\u0165 od toho, aby urobila v\u0161etko, \u010do je potrebn\u00e9 na to, aby infl\u00e1ciu vr\u00e1tila sp\u00e4\u0165 na \u00farove\u0148 2%. Ak sa teraz nepodar\u00ed kontrolova\u0165 rast v\u00fddavkov, sk\u00f4r \u010di nesk\u00f4r to sp\u00f4sob\u00ed e\u0161te v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iu boles\u0165, poznamenal a argumentoval, \u017ee Fed bude st\u00e1\u0165 za svoj\u00edm postojom tak dlho, ako to bude potrebn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prv\u00fdm krokom je zabezpe\u010di\u0165, aby obchodn\u00edci nemuseli t\u00fato spr\u00e1vu vyjadrova\u0165. Ale posun vpred, zatia\u013e \u010do nezamestnanos\u0165 rastie, mal\u00e9 podniky sa zatv\u00e1raj\u00fa a ekonomick\u00e9 zmluvy sa uzatv\u00e1raj\u00fa, m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 \u010fal\u0161\u00edm krokom \u2013 krokom, ktor\u00fd by si vy\u017eadoval d\u00f4kladn\u00e9 presk\u00famanie, aby sa dospelo k jadru veci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Oslabenie finan\u010dn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, ktor\u00e9 sme videli tento t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148, je len za\u010diatok.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O presidente do Fed, Jerome Powell, alertou que a pol\u00edtica financeira mais r\u00edgida da valiosa institui\u00e7\u00e3o financeira pode ser dolorosa.\u00a0Os fatos mais recentes confirmam que ele \u00e9 apropriado.\u00a0Ting Shen\/Bloomberg medi\u00e7\u00e3o de conte\u00fado textual Para o Federal Reserve de Jerome Powell, a parte conveniente se transformou em embarcar em um caminho agressivo de aperto da cobertura […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=390"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=390"}],"curies":[{"name":"pracovn\u00fd list","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}