BENGALURU (Reuters) \u2013 Americk\u00fd Feder\u00e1lny rezervn\u00fd syst\u00e9m 2. novembra \u0161tvrt\u00fdkr\u00e1t po sebe zv\u00fd\u0161i cenu 75-b\u00e1zovej \u00farokovej sadzby. Uviedli to ekon\u00f3movia osloven\u00ed agent\u00farou Reuters. Pod\u013ea nich sa neo\u010dak\u00e1va, \u017ee by t\u00e1to k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00e1 in\u0161tit\u00facia mala pozastavi\u0165 rast, pokia\u013e infl\u00e1cia neklesne na pribli\u017ene polovicu s\u00fa\u010dasnej \u00farovne.<\/p>\n
Jeho najagres\u00edvnej\u0161\u00ed cyklus spr\u00eds\u0148ovania za posledn\u00e9 desa\u0165ro\u010dia priniesol st\u00e1le rast\u00face nebezpe\u010denstvo recesie. V\u00fdskum tie\u017e uk\u00e1zal priemern\u00fa pravdepodobnos\u0165 65% za rok, oproti 45%.<\/p>\n
Napriek tomu siln\u00e1 v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina ekon\u00f3mov, 86 z 90, predpovedala, \u017ee tvorcovia polit\u00edk zv\u00fd\u0161ia n\u00e1klady na feder\u00e1lny dol\u00e1r o tri \u0161tvrtiny percentu\u00e1lneho bodu na 3,751 a\u017e 4,001, ke\u010f\u017ee infl\u00e1cia zost\u00e1va nadmern\u00e1 a nezamestnanos\u0165 sa bl\u00ed\u017ei k minim\u00e1m spred pand\u00e9mie.<\/p>\n
Vplyvy na n\u00e1vrh z\u00e1kona s\u00fa v s\u00falade s cenotvorbou \u00farokov\u00fdch futures. Najv\u00fdznamnej\u0161\u00ed 4 respondenti odhadli zmenu pomeru str\u00e1n o 50 b\u00e1zick\u00fdch bodov.<\/p>\n
\u201cSkor\u0161ie spr\u00edsnenie n\u00e1kladov na zaistenie, ktor\u00e9 sme videli v minulosti, malo za cie\u013e dosiahnu\u0165 priazniv\u00fa re\u00e1lnu spotov\u00fa cenu za\u010diatkom roka 2023,\u201d povedal Jan Groen, hlavn\u00fd makro strat\u00e9g pre USA v spolo\u010dnosti TD Securities, s odkazom na sadzby upraven\u00e9 o infl\u00e1ciu.<\/p>\n
\u201cNamiesto zmeny kurzu pod\u013ea n\u00e1\u0161ho n\u00e1zoru Fed signalizuje, \u017ee predpoklad\u00e1 presun predbe\u017en\u00e9ho zv\u00fd\u0161enia \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb do decembra, oproti r\u00fdchlej\u0161iemu tempu zvy\u0161ovania potom.\u201d.<\/p>\n
V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina ekon\u00f3mov v hlasovan\u00ed od 17. do 24. okt\u00f3bra predpovedala \u010fal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1rast o 50 b\u00e1zick\u00fdch bodov v decembri, \u010d\u00edm by sa cena fondov s pou\u017eit\u00edm konca roka 2022 dostala na 4,25% \u2013 4,50%. To zodpoved\u00e1 medi\u00e1novej projekcii \u201cbodov\u00e9ho grafu\u201d Fedu.<\/p>\n
Pod\u013ea 49 z osemdesiatich ekon\u00f3mov sa o\u010dak\u00e1va, \u017ee miera pe\u0148a\u017en\u00fdch tokov dosiahne vrchol na \u00farovni 4,501 TP3T a\u017e 4,751 TP3T alebo vy\u0161\u0161ej v prvom \u0161tvr\u0165roku 2023. Rizik\u00e1 pre t\u00fato kone\u010dn\u00fa sadzbu sa v\u0161ak posunuli smerom nahor, na z\u00e1klade v\u0161etk\u00fdch okrem jedn\u00e9ho z viac ako 40 respondentov, ktor\u00ed odpovedali na dodato\u010dn\u00fd prieskum.<\/p>\n
Predstavitelia Fedu n\u00e1sledne za\u010dali uva\u017eova\u0165 o tom, \u017ee tempo zvy\u0161ovania v\u00fddavkov m\u00f4\u017eu e\u0161te postupne zni\u017eova\u0165, ke\u010f\u017ee ak\u00fdko\u013evek krok vo v\u00fddavkoch sa prejav\u00ed a\u017e po mnoh\u00fdch mesiacoch.<\/p>\n
Na ot\u00e1zku, okolo akej \u00farovne trvalej infl\u00e1cie by mal Fed s\u00fahlasi\u0165 s pozastaven\u00edm \u2013 v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti sa pohybuje nad 8% v s\u00falade s indexom spotrebite\u013esk\u00fdch cien (CPI) \u2013 medi\u00e1n 22 respondentov hovoril o 4,4% na z\u00e1klade tohto ukazovate\u013ea.<\/p>\n
Fed sleduje index poplatkov za osobn\u00fa spotrebu (PCE), ale v\u00fdskum nazna\u010duje, \u017ee rozhoduj\u00facim faktorom by mala by\u0165 pribli\u017ene polovica najnov\u0161ej miery infl\u00e1cie. Infl\u00e1cia PCE sa pod\u013ea progn\u00f3z dostala nad cie\u013eov\u00fa \u00farove\u0148, s v\u00fdnimkou minim\u00e1lne roku 2025.<\/p>\n
Pod\u013ea hlasovania sa infl\u00e1cia CPI u\u017e nezn\u00ed\u017ei na polovicu, s v\u00fdnimkou druh\u00e9ho \u0161tvr\u0165roka 2023, pri\u010dom v rokoch 2022, 2023 a 2024 dosiahne v priemere 8,1%, 3,9% a 2,5%.<\/p>\n
\u201cZ\u00e1stupcovia Fedu nazna\u010dili, \u017ee pozastavenie je jednoducho uskuto\u010dnite\u013en\u00e9 po \u2018jasn\u00fdch a presved\u010div\u00fdch' d\u00f4kazoch o miernej infl\u00e1cii,\u201d poznamenal Brett Ryan, hlavn\u00fd americk\u00fd ekon\u00f3m Deutsche Bank.<\/p>\n
\u201cVzh\u013eadom na to, \u017ee Fed pokra\u010duje v agres\u00edvnom spr\u00eds\u0148ovan\u00ed s cie\u013eom obmedzi\u0165 pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00facu infl\u00e1ciu, o\u010dak\u00e1vame, \u017ee v tre\u0165om \u0161tvr\u0165roku nasleduj\u00facich 12 mesiacov pravdepodobne za\u010dne recesia strednej \u00farovne, ke\u010f\u017ee skuto\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1rast by sa zn\u00ed\u017eil a cena nezamestnanosti by sa v\u00fdrazne zv\u00fd\u0161ila.\u201d<\/p>\n
O\u010dak\u00e1va sa, \u017ee ekonomika v bud\u00facom roku vzrastie len o 0,41 TP3T \u2013 \u010do je progn\u00f3za, ktor\u00e1 bola v ka\u017edom po sebe nasleduj\u00facom mesa\u010dnom prieskume agent\u00fary Reuters zn\u00ed\u017een\u00e1, ke\u010f\u017ee Fed za\u010dal v marci zvy\u0161ova\u0165 sadzby \u2013 po tom, \u010do za 12 mesiacov dosiahla celkovo 1,71 TP3T.<\/p>\n
O\u010dak\u00e1valo sa, \u017ee v\u00fddavky na podporu nezamestnanosti dosiahnu v priemere 3,71 TP3T po\u010das t\u00fdchto 12 mesiacov, predt\u00fdm ako v rokoch 2023 a 2024 vzrast\u00fa na 4,41 TP3T a 4,81 TP3T, \u010do je s\u00edce aktualiz\u00e1cia oproti predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facemu hlasovaniu, ale v\u00fdrazne ni\u017e\u0161ia \u00farove\u0148 ako maxim\u00e1 zaznamenan\u00e9 po\u010das predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facich recesi\u00ed.<\/p>\n
\u0160anca na v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1rast nezamestnanosti v Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch v bud\u00facom roku v\u0161ak bola nadmern\u00e1, na z\u00e1klade odpovede viac ako polovice op\u00fdtan\u00fdch, 23 zo 41, na dopl\u0148uj\u00facu ot\u00e1zku. Osemn\u00e1s\u0165 uviedlo, \u017ee t\u00e1to pravdepodobnos\u0165 je n\u00edzka.<\/p>\n
(R\u00f4zne anal\u00fdzy medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdskumu agent\u00fary Reuters:)<\/p>\n
(Spr\u00e1vy Prerana Bhat; dodato\u010dn\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy od Indradipa Ghosha; v\u00fdskum Dhruvi Shah, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan a Mumal Rathore; upraven\u00e9 Hari Kishan, Ross Finley a Andrea Ricci)<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BENGALURU (Reuters) – O Federal Reserve dos Estados Unidos far\u00e1 seu quarto aumento consecutivo no pre\u00e7o do passatempo de 75 bases em 2 de novembro, com base em economistas consultados pela Reuters, que disseram que a institui\u00e7\u00e3o financeira cr\u00edtica ainda n\u00e3o deve pausar, exceto que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o cai para cerca de metade do seu est\u00e1gio […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=564"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=564"}],"curies":[{"name":"pracovn\u00fd list","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}