{"id":569,"date":"2022-10-28T18:40:04","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T21:40:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/?p=569"},"modified":"2023-02-21T23:33:15","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T02:33:15","slug":"goldman-sachs-ve-direcao-para-um-pouso-suave-para-o-sistema-financeiro-ficando-mais-claro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/goldman-sachs-ve-direcao-para-um-pouso-suave-para-o-sistema-financeiro-ficando-mais-claro\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs vid\u00ed \u010doraz jasnej\u0161ie smerovanie k m\u00e4kk\u00e9mu prist\u00e1tiu finan\u010dn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span>Nakoniec mo\u017eno existuje cesta k m\u00e4kk\u00e9mu prist\u00e1tiu. Prinajmen\u0161om to si myslia ekon\u00f3movia z Goldman Sachs, ktor\u00ed uviedli, \u017ee Feder\u00e1lny rezervn\u00fd syst\u00e9m m\u00e1 st\u00e1le \u0161ancu zachr\u00e1ni\u0165 finan\u010dn\u00fd syst\u00e9m pred recesiou a z\u00e1rove\u0148 vr\u00e1ti\u0165 infl\u00e1ciu sp\u00e4\u0165 na udr\u017eate\u013en\u00fa \u00farove\u0148. V dvoch pozn\u00e1mkach klientom podan\u00fdch v nede\u013eu firma z Wall Street zalo\u017eila svoje tvrdenie na dvoch pilieroch \u2013 \u017ee trh pr\u00e1ce sa op\u00e4\u0165 za\u010d\u00edna stabilizova\u0165 medzi ponukou a dopytom a \u017ee boom miezd sa v dvoch k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch sektoroch dostato\u010dne ochladzuje, \u010do nazna\u010duje, \u017ee by sa dala zastavi\u0165 aj \u0161pir\u00e1la mzdov\u00fdch v\u00fddavkov. \u201c\u0160anca, \u017ee sa recesia uk\u00e1\u017ee ako nevyhnutn\u00e1, mierne klesla, ke\u010f\u017ee prv\u00e9 dve f\u00e1zy nevyhnutnej \u00fapravy \u2013 spomalenie rastu HDP na tempo podpriemern\u00e9 a op\u00e4tovn\u00e9 vyv\u00e1\u017eenie ponuky a dopytu na trhu pr\u00e1ce \u2013 boli doteraz pozoruhodne dobr\u00e9, pozit\u00edvnej\u0161ie ako v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina ostatn\u00fdch. Goldman prira\u010fuje pravdepodobnos\u0165 35%, \u017ee ekonomika vst\u00fapi do recesie v bud\u00facom roku. Firma o\u010dak\u00e1va rast HDP len o 0,3% v t\u00fdchto 12 mesiacoch a 1,1% v roku 2023. Vzh\u013eadom na to, \u017ee je to v\u00fdrazne viac, ako by sa dalo o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165 v be\u017en\u00fdch pr\u00edpadoch, alebo nie, je to v podstate pozit\u00edvnej\u0161ie ako niektor\u00e9 predpovede. Prieskum CNBC All-America za tret\u00ed \u0161tvr\u0165rok, zverejnen\u00fd minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148, uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee 68% respondentov o\u010dak\u00e1va, \u017ee USA r\u00fdchlo vst\u00fapia do recesie, zatia\u013e \u010do 9% ver\u00ed, \u017ee krajina tam u\u017e je. (Prieskum sa uskuto\u010dnil medzi 800 registrovan\u00fdmi voli\u010dmi a m\u00e1 rozp\u00e4tie chyby plus alebo m\u00ednus 3,5 percentu\u00e1lneho bodu.)\u201c Briggs diskutoval o tom, ako v\u00fddavky upraven\u00e9 o infl\u00e1ciu v alternat\u00edvnom maloobchode a Situ\u00e1cia v sektoroch ubytovania a stravovac\u00edch slu\u017eieb nazna\u010duje, \u017ee z\u00e1kazn\u00edci sa s\u0165ahuj\u00fa. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 sa zmen\u0161uje rozdiel v dostupnej pracovnej sile a rast miezd a cenov\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia sa rovnako ochladzuj\u00fa, hoci st\u00e1le funguj\u00fa na dlhodob\u00fdch \u00farovniach. \u201dKatastrofy z maloobchodu a odvetv\u00ed ubytovania a stravovac\u00edch slu\u017eieb silne nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee cesta k krehk\u00e9mu poklesu, predpokladan\u00e1 v na\u0161ej z\u00e1kladnej finan\u010dnej progn\u00f3ze, je \u017eivotaschopn\u00e1,\u201c nap\u00edsal Briggs. Fakty z r\u00f4znych odvetv\u00ed v\u0161ak nikdy nie s\u00fa tak\u00e9 povzbudiv\u00e9. Podmienky na trhu pr\u00e1ce s\u00fa \u201dmimoriadne nevyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9\u201c v odvetviach zodpovedaj\u00facich ve\u013ekoobchodu, \u0161pecializovan\u00fdm a obchodn\u00fdm zdrojom, ako aj zdravotn\u00edctvu a soci\u00e1lnym inform\u00e1ci\u00e1m, uviedol Briggs. Aj napriek t\u00fdmto nerovnov\u00e1ham v\u0161ak povedal, \u017ee priemern\u00fd v\u00fdvoj \u201d\u010dasto pom\u00e1ha vyhliadkam na m\u00e4kk\u00e9 prist\u00e1tie\u201c. Podobne Mericle poznamenal, \u017ee \u0161ance na recesiu vyvolan\u00fa Fedom prostredn\u00edctvom extr\u00e9mneho zv\u00fd\u0161enia \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb \u201dsa pravdepodobne mierne zv\u00fd\u0161ili\u201c. Povedal tie\u017e, \u017ee \u0161ance na recesiu \u201dv d\u00f4sledku nejakej nepredv\u00eddanej zlo\u017eky\u201c s\u00fa tie\u017e \u201dmierne vy\u0161\u0161ie ako priemer\u201c, zatia\u013e \u010do geopolitick\u00e9 rizik\u00e1 \u201ds\u00fa tie\u017e lep\u0161ie ako zvy\u010dajne\u201c. Trhy sa dozvedia viac o infl\u00e1cii a stave \u0161ir\u0161ieho ekonomick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu koncom tohto t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148a. \u00dadaje o HDP za tret\u00ed \u0161tvr\u0165rok by mohli by\u0165 zverejnen\u00e9 vo \u0161tvrtok, pri\u010dom Dow Jonesov konsenzus o\u010dak\u00e1va n\u00e1rast o 2,41 TP3T po dvoch po sebe nasleduj\u00facich negat\u00edvnych hodnot\u00e1ch v prvej polovici roka. Infl\u00e1cia poplatkov za vlastn\u00fa spotrebu, preferovan\u00e1 metrika Fedu, dosiahne v piatok, pri\u010dom sa o\u010dak\u00e1va n\u00e1rast jadrovej 12-mesa\u010dnej infl\u00e1cie o 5,21 TP3T v septembri v porovnan\u00ed so 4,91 TP3T v predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facom mesiaci.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pode haver um caminho para uma aterrissagem suave, afinal.\u00a0No m\u00ednimo, \u00e9 o que os economistas consideram no Goldman Sachs, que disse que o Federal Reserve ainda tem 65% de chance de preservar o sistema financeiro de uma recess\u00e3o enquanto traz a infla\u00e7\u00e3o de volta a n\u00edveis sustent\u00e1veis.\u00a0Em um par de notas de clientes arquivadas no [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=569"}],"curies":[{"name":"pracovn\u00fd list","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}