{"id":770,"date":"2022-12-05T19:58:59","date_gmt":"2022-12-05T22:58:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/?p=770"},"modified":"2023-02-21T23:33:15","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T02:33:15","slug":"por-que-a-economia-esta-comecando-a-acreditar-no-bem-impulsivamente","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/por-que-a-economia-esta-comecando-a-acreditar-no-bem-impulsivamente\/","title":{"rendered":"Pre\u010do ekonomika za\u010d\u00edna impulz\u00edvne veri\u0165 v dobro."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span>Tento rok sa zd\u00e1 by\u0165 dlh\u00fd, v\u0161etci nerv\u00f3zne \u010dakaj\u00fa, kedy sa probl\u00e9my zhor\u0161ia. Hovor\u00edm hlavne o ekonomickom syst\u00e9me. Rast infl\u00e1cie sa stal tak\u00fdm prudk\u00fdm \u2013 v j\u00fani dosiahol 9 percent Celzia \u2013 \u017ee zatienil v\u0161etky pozit\u00edva a vrhol tie\u0148 z\u00fafalstva na tento chaotick\u00fd a oby\u010dajn\u00fd rok. Pre\u010do nie? Hoci nezamestnanos\u0165 zostala n\u00edzka, vysok\u00e9 mzdov\u00e9 d\u00e1vky, ktor\u00e9 pracovn\u00edci dost\u00e1vali, nesta\u010dili na prekonanie vysok\u00fdch \u017eivotn\u00fdch n\u00e1kladov. Navy\u0161e, vzh\u013eadom na konflikt na Ukrajine a zvy\u0161ovanie cien ropy zo strany OPEC+ a obavy v\u0161etk\u00fdch z oneskoren\u00fdch v\u00fdsledkov agres\u00edvneho zvy\u0161ovania \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb Feder\u00e1lnym rezervn\u00fdm syst\u00e9mom, bolo logickej\u0161ie pripravi\u0165 sa na ove\u013ea hor\u0161\u00ed rok 2023. Recesia, stagfl\u00e1cia, depresia... a ktovie, ak\u00e9 \u010fal\u0161ie hrozn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pribli\u017ene o dva t\u00fd\u017edne sa stretn\u00fa guvern\u00e9ri Feder\u00e1lneho rezervn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, aby stanovili ekonomick\u00fa kl\u00edmu minim\u00e1lne na za\u010diatok nasleduj\u00facich 12 mesiacov. Ich posolstvom bude pravdepodobne meranie \u010fal\u0161ieho zv\u00fd\u0161enia cien. V stredu predseda tejto d\u00f4le\u017eitej banky Jerome Powell predniesol prejav, v ktorom nazna\u010dil, \u017ee sa mu po takmer roku najagres\u00edvnej\u0161ej kampane Fedu za dlh\u00e9 obdobie podarilo za\u010da\u0165 zmier\u0148ova\u0165 zvy\u0161ovanie cien, ktor\u00e9 ni\u010d\u00ed ekonomick\u00fa kl\u00edmu (ale aj infl\u00e1ciu). \u201c\u010cas na zmiernenie tempa zvy\u0161ovania \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb m\u00f4\u017ee pr\u00eds\u0165 u\u017e na decembrovom zasadnut\u00ed,\u201d povedal vo svojom obvyklom decentnom \u0161t\u00fdle. V mnoh\u00fdch oh\u013eadoch sa to stalo opakovan\u00edm prejavov, ktor\u00e9 predniesol u\u017e predt\u00fdm \u2013 t\u00fdch, ktor\u00e9 poukazovali na dramatick\u00e9 uvo\u013enenie trendu na Wall Street, ke\u010f sa zdalo, \u017ee st\u00e1le nedok\u00e1\u017ee presta\u0165 dupa\u0165 na ekonomick\u00e9 brzdy. Tentoraz si priemyseln\u00fd index Dow Jones nasadil svoj narodeninov\u00fd klob\u00fak a v skorom term\u00edne sa dostal do misy s pun\u010dom, pri\u010dom vysko\u010dil o viac ako 700 bodov, \u010do je jeho najvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed bod od apr\u00edla.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u010co sa zmenilo? Fed dal jasne najavo, \u017ee tieto opatrenia nezostan\u00fa nav\u017edy \u2013 niektor\u00ed \u013eudia sa otvorene ob\u00e1vaj\u00fa, ako by ich preh\u00e1\u0148anie mohlo zni\u010di\u0165 ekonomick\u00fa kl\u00edmu \u2013 a sleduje n\u00e1znaky, kedy by sa mala ochladi\u0165. Infl\u00e1cia bola v posledn\u00fdch mesiacoch pomerne stabiln\u00e1 a mala by na\u010falej klesa\u0165. (Rekordn\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia za november by mala by\u0165 zverejnen\u00e1 nieko\u013eko dn\u00ed pred zasadnut\u00edm Fedu.) V stredu feder\u00e1lna exekut\u00edva zverejnila aj dve \u010fal\u0161ie inform\u00e1cie, ktor\u00e9 d\u00e1vaj\u00fa Fedu z\u00e1ruku, \u017ee za\u010dne spoma\u013eova\u0165 svoje pl\u00e1ny na zvy\u0161ovanie \u00farokov\u00fdch n\u00e1kladov. Prvou je, \u017ee po\u010det prepusten\u00fdch pracovn\u00fdch miest klesol za jeden mesiac o 353 000, a to aj napriek tomu, \u017ee \u013eudia na\u010falej op\u00fa\u0161\u0165aj\u00fa svoje zamestnanie. (Fed \u017eiada o obmedzenie n\u00e1boru ako n\u00e1hradu za spomalenie podnikate\u013esk\u00e9ho boomu, ktor\u00fd d\u00fafa, \u017ee sa zn\u00ed\u017ei, aby sa zabr\u00e1nilo \u010fal\u0161iemu rastu n\u00e1kladov. Hoci be\u017en\u00fd po\u010det vo\u013en\u00fdch pracovn\u00fdch miest je extr\u00e9mne vysok\u00fd, pohybuj\u00fa sa smerom, ktor\u00fdm sa chce Powell ubera\u0165.) Druhou je, \u017ee ekonomika v poslednom \u0161tvr\u0165roku vzr\u00e1stla o 2,91 TP3Q, \u010d\u00edm sa zni\u017euje pravdepodobnos\u0165 recesie. Miera nezamestnanosti je st\u00e1le na \u00farovni 3,71TP3Q, \u010do je bl\u00edzko star\u00fdch min\u00edm, a neo\u010dak\u00e1va sa, \u017ee \u010fal\u0161ie rekordn\u00e9 maximum v piatok odhal\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u00fa transform\u00e1ciu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nie je to tak, \u017ee by ekonomick\u00e1 kl\u00edma teraz prekvitala, ale nie je to ani zl\u00e9. O\u010dak\u00e1va sa, \u017ee Fed si do bud\u00facnosti udr\u017e\u00ed svoje progn\u00f3zy aktivity vysok\u00e9 po\u010das relat\u00edvne dlh\u00e9ho obdobia, ktor\u00fdch d\u00f4sledky s\u00fa nepredv\u00eddate\u013en\u00e9. Ceny nehnute\u013enost\u00ed u\u017e za\u010dali klesa\u0165 na \u00farovne porovnate\u013en\u00e9 s bytovou kr\u00edzou v roku 2008. Ak \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby osobn\u00fdch \u00faverov zostan\u00fa tak\u00e9 vysok\u00e9 ako v predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facich rokoch, mohlo by to udr\u017ea\u0165 desiatky mili\u00f3nov \u013eud\u00ed v podmorsk\u00fdch bytoch a z\u00e1rove\u0148 spusti\u0165 cyklus, v ktorom sa b\u00fdvanie nakoniec stane dostupn\u00fdm pre desiatky mili\u00f3nov Ameri\u010danov, \u010do im d\u00e1 pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165 vybudova\u0165 si bohatstvo prostredn\u00edctvom trhu, z ktor\u00e9ho boli ned\u00e1vno vyl\u00fa\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ale zatia\u013e sa zd\u00e1, \u017ee rub\u00e1\u0161 sa zdvihol. Zd\u00e1 sa, \u017ee Eur\u00f3pa m\u00e1 glob\u00e1lne dostatok plynu na to, aby sa po\u010das zimy vyhla zamrznutiu, a mnoh\u00e9 z nap\u00e4tej\u0161\u00edch spleti dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00fdch re\u0165azcov, ktor\u00e9 sa objavili po\u010das vojny na Ukrajine, boli vyrie\u0161en\u00e9. Plyn je takmer rovnak\u00fd ako pred rokom, predt\u00fdm, ako sa na\u0148 v\u0161etci za\u010dali s\u0165a\u017eova\u0165. Dobre, veci s\u00fa zl\u00e9, ak pracujete v kryptografii alebo na Twitteri, ale ak ste to vy, pravdepodobne st\u00e1le rob\u00edte dos\u0165 (pokia\u013e va\u0161a identita nie je Sam Bankman-Fried). Pre v\u0161etk\u00fdch ostatn\u00fdch sa zd\u00e1, \u017ee Powell by mohol by\u0165 schopn\u00fd ochladi\u0165 ekonomiku bez toho, aby ju zni\u010dil.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Este ano parece longo, todas as pessoas esperando nervosamente que os problemas piorem ainda mais.\u00a0Falo aqui principalmente do sistema econ\u00f4mico.\u00a0O aumento da infla\u00e7\u00e3o tornou-se t\u00e3o acentuado &#8211; chegando a 9 pC em junho &#8211; que abafou todos os aspectos positivos e deu um tom de desespero durante este ano ca\u00f3tico e comum.\u00a0Por que n\u00e3o?\u00a0Embora o [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=770"}],"curies":[{"name":"pracovn\u00fd list","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}