{"id":873,"date":"2023-01-11T22:20:23","date_gmt":"2023-01-12T01:20:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/?p=873"},"modified":"2026-07-21T15:35:01","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T18:35:01","slug":"3-fatores-que-podem-preservar-o-clima-economico-da-recessao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/3-fatores-que-podem-preservar-o-clima-economico-da-recessao\/","title":{"rendered":"3 faktory, ktor\u00e9 m\u00f4\u017eu ochr\u00e1ni\u0165 ekonomick\u00fa kl\u00edmu pred recesiou."},"content":{"rendered":"

Skuto\u010dn\u00e9 spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky na konci roka 2022 st\u00e1le r\u00e1stli v porovnan\u00ed s predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facim rokom tempom zodpovedaj\u00facim 2%, p\u00ed\u0161e Gregory Daco. Kena Betancur\/Getty Photographs<\/span><\/p>\n

O autorovi: Gregory Daco je v\u00fdkonn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m v spolo\u010dnosti EY a b\u00fdval\u00fd hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m v spolo\u010dnosti Oxford Economics. N\u00e1zory vyjadren\u00e9 v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku s\u00fa n\u00e1zormi autora a nemusia v\u017edy predstavova\u0165 n\u00e1zory spolo\u010dnosti Ernst & Young LLP alebo in\u00fdch os\u00f4b v glob\u00e1lnej firme EY.<\/span><\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1lny finan\u010dn\u00fd syst\u00e9m sa s pr\u00edchodom roku 2023 st\u00e1va \u010doraz \u0165a\u017e\u0161ie de\u0161ifrovate\u013en\u00fdm a konsenzu\u00e1lny n\u00e1zor na miernu recesiu bude v nasleduj\u00facich mesiacoch spochybnen\u00fd. K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fd je cie\u013e. Hoci mierna recesia predstavuje vynikaj\u00facu medi\u00e1nov\u00fa progn\u00f3zu, v \u017eiadnom pr\u00edpade nie je najpravdepodobnej\u0161ia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V jednom pr\u00edpade, prebiehaj\u00faci konflikt na Ukrajine a sankcie vo\u010di Rusku, nadmern\u00e9 viacro\u010dn\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby, n\u00edzke v\u00fddavky na glob\u00e1lnu spravodlivos\u0165, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 volatilita menov\u00e9ho trhu a synchronizovan\u00e9 spomalenie v Eur\u00f3pe, Latinskej Amerike, USA a \u00c1zii, poved\u00fa svetov\u00fa ekonomiku k recesii v roku 2023. V tomto prostred\u00ed by zhor\u0161uj\u00face sa alternat\u00edvne, investi\u010dn\u00e9 a fi\u0161k\u00e1lne trhov\u00e9 podmienky \u0161ok e\u0161te zhor\u0161ili, tak\u017ee glob\u00e1lna recesia by bola vhodnej\u0161ia ako s\u00fa\u010det nieko\u013ek\u00fdch region\u00e1lnych recesi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na druhej strane, v scen\u00e1ri m\u00e4kk\u00e9ho prist\u00e1tia \u2013 kde sa finan\u010dn\u00e1 aktivita ochlad\u00ed nato\u013eko, aby umo\u017enila n\u00e1vrat infl\u00e1cie k aktivit\u00e1m ve\u013ek\u00fdch b\u00e1nk \u2013 medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e1 ekonomika prech\u00e1dza obdob\u00edm pomal\u0161ieho rastu v prvej polovici 12-mesa\u010dn\u00e9ho roka, ale po\u010das leta a v roku 2024 sa z neho vynor\u00ed \u017eiaduci impulz.<\/span><\/p>\n

O rizik\u00e1ch zhor\u0161enia v\u00fdh\u013eadu sa u\u017e pop\u00edsalo ve\u013ea, preto je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 zd\u00f4razni\u0165 tri k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 faktory, ktor\u00e9 by mohli vies\u0165 k naplneniu sebavedomej\u0161ieho scen\u00e1ra. Nejde o nasadenie si ru\u017eov\u00fdch okuliarov, ale sk\u00f4r o pozorovanie ned\u00e1vnych medzin\u00e1rodn\u00fdch javov so zvedav\u00fdm poh\u013eadom na pravdepodobnos\u0165.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tri prvky, ktor\u00e9 si vy\u017eaduj\u00fa pozornos\u0165 pri sledovan\u00ed obrazovky, s\u00fa relat\u00edvna odolnos\u0165 obchodnej a z\u00e1kazn\u00edckej aktivity v USA, extr\u00e9mne mierna zima v Eur\u00f3pe a prekvapuj\u00face zru\u0161enie nulov\u00e9ho pokrytia Covidu v pevninskej \u010c\u00edne.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V USA v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti cite\u013ene kles\u00e1 dopyt po uzatv\u00e1ran\u00ed prev\u00e1dzok. Pr\u00edsnej\u0161ie fi\u0161k\u00e1lne a \u00faverov\u00e9 podmienky zaveden\u00e9 prostredn\u00edctvom agres\u00edvneho cyklu spr\u00eds\u0148ovania Feder\u00e1lneho rezervn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu n\u00fatia ved\u00facich pracovn\u00edkov firiem prehodnoti\u0165 svoje investi\u010dn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti a potreby talentov na rok 2023. V nasleduj\u00facich mesiacoch sa ved\u00faci pracovn\u00edci zdr\u00e1haj\u00fa rozl\u00fa\u010di\u0165 so svojimi cenn\u00fdmi zru\u010dnos\u0165ami. Prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165anie zost\u00e1va preto n\u00edzke a spolo\u010dnosti namiesto toho tvrdia, \u017ee zn\u00ed\u017eili prij\u00edmanie zamestnancov a z\u00e1rove\u0148 stla\u010dili rast miezd, aby obmedzili n\u00e1klady na pracovn\u00fa silu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Decembrov\u00e1 spr\u00e1va o zamestnanosti odr\u00e1\u017eala toto mierne uvo\u013enenie dopytu po pracovnej sile. Priemern\u00fd trojmesa\u010dn\u00fd prevod zamestnaneck\u00fdch d\u00e1vok sa zn\u00ed\u017eil na slu\u0161n\u00fdch 247 000, odpracovan\u00e9 hodiny sa vr\u00e1tili na \u00farove\u0148 spred pand\u00e9mie a do\u010dasn\u00e9 zamestnanie kleslo piaty mesiac po sebe. Vzh\u013eadom na to, \u017ee ekonomika v roku 2022 vytvorila 4,5 mili\u00f3na pracovn\u00fdch miest a miera nezamestnanosti je na 50-ro\u010dnom minime 3,5%, trh pr\u00e1ce zost\u00e1va do istej miery robustn\u00fd.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1bava nakupuj\u00facich a ich m\u00ed\u0148anie tie\u017e potvrdilo zn\u00e1mky odolnosti. Plat\u00ed to preto, \u017ee dom\u00e1cnosti \u2013 najm\u00e4 tie s n\u00edzkymi pr\u00edjmami \u2013 s\u00fa pri n\u00e1kupoch opatrnej\u0161ie a \u010doraz viac vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa z\u013eavy a kreditn\u00e9 sk\u00f3re vzh\u013eadom na neust\u00e1le rast\u00facu infl\u00e1ciu. Skuto\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fddavky z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov sa v\u0161ak na konci roka 2022 v porovnan\u00ed s predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facimi 12 mesiacmi zv\u00fd\u0161ili tempom rovnaj\u00facim sa 2%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Decembrov\u00e1 \u0161t\u00fadia o priemern\u00fdch hodinov\u00fdch z\u00e1robkoch pracovn\u00edkov v s\u00fakromnom sektore bude ur\u010dite dobrou pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165ou pre tvorcov polit\u00edk Fedu h\u013eada\u0165 d\u00f4kazy o tom, \u017ee ich boj proti infl\u00e1cii je \u00faspe\u0161n\u00fd. Miernej\u0161\u00ed medzimesa\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1rast miezd v spojen\u00ed s men\u0161\u00edm postpandemick\u00fdm boomom miezd o 4,61 TP3T za 12 mesiacov m\u00f4\u017ee Fed st\u00e1le uisti\u0165, \u017ee pokra\u010duj\u00face spomalenie tempa spr\u00eds\u0148ovania menovej politiky \u2013 ktor\u00e9 predstavuje mo\u017en\u00fd medzi\u0161tvr\u0165ro\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1rast n\u00e1kladov na v\u00fdrobn\u00e9 faktory za\u010diatkom febru\u00e1ra \u2013 je opodstatnen\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00f4kazy o zmiernen\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00e9ho tlaku v nasleduj\u00facich mesiacoch by nepochybne \u010falej spochybnili jastrabie postoje Fedu. Mohli by dokonca otvori\u0165 dvere k rekalibr\u00e1cii menovej politiky, ktor\u00e1 zah\u0155\u0148a \u0161krty vo v\u00fddavkoch pred koncom roka \u2013 \u010fal\u0161\u00ed stimul na zv\u00fd\u0161enie sadzieb. K tomu by mohlo d\u00f4js\u0165 napriek ned\u00e1vnemu postrehu v z\u00e1pisnici zo zasadnutia Feder\u00e1lneho v\u00fdboru pre oper\u00e1cie na vo\u013enom trhu, \u017ee \u201cnikto neo\u010dak\u00e1val, \u017ee bude mo\u017en\u00e9 za\u010da\u0165 zni\u017eova\u0165 cie\u013eov\u00fa hodnotu feder\u00e1lnej menovej sadzby v roku 2023\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Medzit\u00fdm si Eur\u00f3pa u\u017e\u00edvala prekvapiv\u00fa slobodu pohybu s jedn\u00fdm z najteplej\u0161\u00edch a najd\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161\u00edch za\u010diatkov za\u013ead\u0148ovania za posledn\u00e9 roky, ak nie desa\u0165ro\u010dia. Hoci tieto podmienky ur\u010dite zvy\u0161uj\u00fa lok\u00e1lne klimatick\u00e9 obavy, vy\u0161\u0161ie teploty zmier\u0148uj\u00fa obavy z bud\u00facej energetickej kr\u00edzy, ke\u010f\u017ee skladovanie paliva v celej Eur\u00f3pe zost\u00e1va na zv\u00fd\u0161enej \u00farovni. Ni\u017e\u0161ie v\u00fddavky na zemn\u00e9 palivo, ropu a elektrinu zni\u017euj\u00fa faktura\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edsla dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed v celej Eur\u00f3pe a m\u00f4\u017eu ovplyv\u0148ova\u0165 spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky a v\u00fdrobn\u00fa \u010dinnos\u0165.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozhodnutie nakupova\u0165 mana\u017e\u00e9rske indexy v celej euroz\u00f3ne tie\u017e poukazuje na pokus o o\u017eivenie v rizikovom sektore v sektore dod\u00e1vate\u013eov. Ke\u010f\u017ee kupuj\u00faci a mana\u017e\u00e9ri s\u00fa menej pesimistick\u00ed, pokia\u013e ide o v\u00fdh\u013ead, a region\u00e1lne ekonomiky kon\u010dia rok silnej\u0161ie, ako sa o\u010dak\u00e1valo, rizikov\u00fd sektor m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 v roku 2023 menej utlmen\u00fd. Agres\u00edvne spr\u00eds\u0148ovanie finan\u010dnej politiky a agres\u00edvne rokovania vo v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00fdch in\u0161tit\u00faci\u00e1ch E\u00da v\u0161ak spolu so slab\u00fdm rastom tr\u017eieb hovoria proti ak\u00e9muko\u013evek pred\u010dasn\u00e9mu rastu, preto\u017ee ovplyv\u0148uj\u00fa u\u017e aj tak obmedzen\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti sektora.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ke\u010f\u017ee \u010d\u00ednske \u00farady zvedavo dospeli k z\u00e1veru, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdhody r\u00fdchleho zru\u0161enia politiky nulov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu pr\u00edpadov Covidu preva\u017euj\u00fa nad n\u00e1kladmi na fyzick\u00fa katastrofu, krajina zaznamenala mimoriadny n\u00e1rast infekci\u00ed a \u00famrt\u00ed na Covid. V nasleduj\u00facom obdob\u00ed by to mohlo v \u010c\u00edne v\u00fdrazne obmedzi\u0165 finan\u010dn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti. Zatia\u013e \u010do vplyv na rast je v kr\u00e1tkodobom horizonte zvy\u010dajne v\u00fdznamn\u00fd, zr\u00fdchlenie presadzovania prorastov\u00fdch usmernen\u00ed a posil\u0148ovania imunity popul\u00e1cie zo strany vl\u00e1dy pravdepodobne povedie k o\u017eiveniu zamestnanosti, spotrebite\u013esk\u00fdch v\u00fddavkov a priemyselnej aktivity na jar a v lete. .<\/span><\/p>\n

Pre ekonomick\u00e9 trhy zameran\u00e9 na bud\u00facnos\u0165 to zvy\u010dajne znamen\u00e1, \u017ee hoci volatilita pravdepodobne zostane v prvej polovici roka v\u0161adepr\u00edtomn\u00e1, po rozpt\u00fdlen\u00ed neistoty oh\u013eadom bezprostredn\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdh\u013eadu m\u00f4\u017eu prevl\u00e1da\u0165 aj priaznivej\u0161ie trhov\u00e9 podmienky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A ak sa napln\u00ed najoptimistickej\u0161\u00ed scen\u00e1r, uvedomenie si, \u017ee robustnej\u0161ie prostredie n\u00e1kladov na hobby bude pravdepodobne pretrv\u00e1va\u0165 spolu s predefinovan\u00fdmi trhov\u00fdmi oceneniami a stabilizovan\u00fdmi trhmi zahrani\u010dn\u00e9ho obchodu, m\u00f4\u017ee st\u00e1le vies\u0165 k silnej\u0161iemu transak\u010dn\u00e9mu cvi\u010deniu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Os gastos reais dos compradores ainda estavam subindo a um ritmo equivalente a 2% no final de 2022 em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o ano anterior, escreve Gregory Daco.\u00a0Kena Betancur\/Fotografias Getty sobre o criador: Gregory Daco \u00e9 o economista executivo da EY e ex-economista-chefe da Oxford Economics.\u00a0As opini\u00f5es expressas neste artigo s\u00e3o do autor e nem sempre […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":6892,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=873"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/873\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6893,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/873\/revisions\/6893"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=873"}],"curies":[{"name":"pracovn\u00fd list","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}