{"id":571,"date":"2022-10-27T22:29:05","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T01:29:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/?p=571"},"modified":"2023-02-21T23:33:15","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T02:33:15","slug":"o-clima-economico-sem-duvida-cresceu-em-um-ritmo-honesto-no-terceiro-trimestre-mas-os-economistas-veem-o-obstaculo-a-frente","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/o-clima-economico-sem-duvida-cresceu-em-um-ritmo-honesto-no-terceiro-trimestre-mas-os-economistas-veem-o-obstaculo-a-frente\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomik iklim \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki kayda de\u011fer bir h\u0131zla iyile\u015fti, ancak ekonomistler \u00f6nlerinde bir engel g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span>Bu sizi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtabilir: ABD ekonomisinin Temmuz-Eyl\u00fcl aylar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda y\u0131ll\u0131k ,3 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015fan bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyonun devam etmesi ve \u2013g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam raporlar\u0131yla s\u00fcrekli olarak kesintiye u\u011frasa da\u2013 ekonomik karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n hafif bir esintisi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek olabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>H\u00fck\u00fcmetin bu aylara ili\u015fkin gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSY\u0130H) tahmini Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve ekonomistler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki durgunlu\u011fa k\u0131yasla bir toparlanma g\u00f6sterece\u011fini bekliyor. Reel GSY\u0130H, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 12 ay\u0131ndaki 1,61 trilyonluk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 0,61 trilyonluk bir daralma g\u00f6sterdi. Bu iki ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k \u00e7eyrekteki daralma, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli enerjisine ve ekonomistlerin bu t\u00fcr bir yava\u015flamadan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z konusunda genel olarak hemfikir olduklar\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitli g\u00f6stergelere ra\u011fmen, ekonominin teknik olarak durgunlukta olabilece\u011fi s\u00f6ylentilerini k\u00f6r\u00fckledi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ancak, finansal sistemin gidi\u015fat\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler devam etti; yine de Atlanta Federal Rezerv Bankas\u0131, Temmuz-Eyl\u00fcl \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonomik iklimin %2,91&#039;in \u00fczerinde bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Goldman Sachs ekonomistleri GSY\u0130H&#039;nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,41 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin ederken, Reuters taraf\u0131ndan anket yap\u0131lan ekonomistlerin ortak tahmini %2,11&#039;lik bir art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Bu GSY\u0130H miktar\u0131, se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131 d\u00f6neminin zirvesine ula\u015fmadan \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015fecektir ve bu tahminlerin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine bile ula\u015f\u0131rsa, Ba\u015fkan Joe Biden ve Demokratlar i\u00e7in memnuniyet verici ekonomik haberler anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir performans, ekonominin g\u00fcvende oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmiyor ve ekonomistler, Federal Rezerv&#039;in enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD&#039;nin bir resesyondan ka\u00e7\u0131nabilece\u011fi konusunda giderek daha karamsar hale geliyorlar. CNN taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanan bir makalede Jeffries ekonomistleri Aneta Markowska ve Thomas Simons, &quot;Daha iyi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ve daha elveri\u015fli bir dolar\u0131n yak\u0131n gelecekteki GSY\u0130H etkisi muazzamd\u0131r&quot; dedi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Hikaye devam ediyor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ekonomi firmas\u0131n\u0131n ulusal i\u015ftiraki yard\u0131m\u0131yla yap\u0131lan yeni bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te ikisinin \u00fclkenin zaten resesyonda oldu\u011funu veya \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde resesyona girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi\u011fini ortaya koydu. Bloomberg&#039;den al\u0131nan bilgilere g\u00f6re, &quot;3-10 Ekim tarihleri aras\u0131nda 55 NABE \u00fcyesiyle yap\u0131lan anket, talebin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131nda hafif bir azalma oldu\u011funu da g\u00f6sterdi.&quot;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u00d6zetle: Bu haftaki GSY\u0130H raporu tak\u0131m elbiseli i\u015f\u00e7i say\u0131s\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f da g\u00f6sterebilir, ancak Fed&#039;in genel olarak umdu\u011fu &quot;yumu\u015fak dokunu\u015fu&quot; \u00f6ng\u00f6rebilecek durumda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ekonomik iklimin 2023&#039;te bir daralmaya yol a\u00e7ma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde endi\u015feler art\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u00d6\u011freniminizden keyif ald\u0131n\u0131z m\u0131? \u00dccretsiz yay\u0131n\u0131m\u0131za kaydolun.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Isso pode surpreend\u00ea-lo: a economia dos EUA dever\u00e1 ter crescido a um pre\u00e7o anual superior a 2% nos tr\u00eas meses de julho a setembro. Dada a persist\u00eancia de uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o dolorosamente excessiva e o que parece ser uma batida suave de pessimismo econ\u00f4mico \u2013 apesar de sempre pontuada por poderosos relat\u00f3rios de empregos \u2013 a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noticias-gerais.online\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}